Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2025 before slowing slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2026, according to the latest World Economic Outlook Update released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF’s projection is seen as a vote of confidence in the country’s ongoing economic reforms, which have aimed to stabilise public finances, attract investment, and boost productivity.
Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is forecast to grow by four per cent this year, with a further increase to 4.3 per cent expected in 2026, the report said.
However, the global outlook remains clouded by persistent uncertainties, including trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which the IMF warns could further disrupt supply chains and increase the cost of imported goods an area of particular concern for import-dependent economies like Nigeria.
On the global scale, the IMF projects overall growth of three per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026—both slightly higher than its April forecast.
It attributes the improvement to stronger-than-expected early-year activity, lower average U.S. tariff rates, and looser financial conditions, including a weaker dollar and fiscal expansion in major economies.
Inflation is expected to decline globally, with headline inflation projected to ease to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026.
However, the report notes stark differences between countries, with inflation expected to remain above central bank targets in the United States while being more subdued in other large economies.
Among emerging markets and developing economies, growth is forecast at 4.1 per cent in 2025 and four per cent in 2026.
China’s growth outlook for 2025 has been revised upward by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 per cent, following stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year and a significant easing of U.S.-China trade tariffs.
The report concluded that while risks remain, recent data suggest that the global economy is adapting to challenges more resiliently than previously anticipated.
