The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), projecting a 4.68 per cent growth rate and total federation revenue of N50.74 trillion.
Under the revenue allocation formula, the Federal Government is expected to receive N22.6 trillion, states N16.3 trillion, and local governments N11.85 trillion. Revenue from government-owned enterprises is projected at N34.33 trillion.
The plan sets key macroeconomic assumptions for the 2026 budget, including a crude oil benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate projection of N1,512/$1.
Briefing State House correspondents after the meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning Senator Atiku Bagudu said the framework reflects extensive consultations across government agencies, the private sector, civil society and development partners.
For the first time, the government distinguished between target and benchmark oil production.
Operators have been tasked to deliver 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026, but a conservative benchmark of 1.8mbpd was adopted for budgeting purposes.
Federal revenue from all sources is projected at N34.33 trillion — a 16 per cent (N6.55 trillion) decline from the 2025 estimate.
Expenditure projections include statutory transfers of N3 trillion, debt service of N15.91 trillion, and non-debt recurrent spending of N15.27 trillion.
The budget deficit is estimated at N20.1 trillion, or 3.61 per cent of GDP.
Bagudu said the MTEF/FSP will be transmitted to the National Assembly in line with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
He added that President Tinubu has directed tighter coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, enhanced security spending, stronger vigilance against revenue leakages and increased investment in transformative infrastructure and domestic production.
“Mr President believes that having stabilised the macro-economy, we must sustain the reforms,” he said.
Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Wale Edun said FEC also approved two concessional facilities: a $100 million African Development Bank loan for the Youth Investment Fund targeting Nigerians aged 18 to 35, and a $50 million Islamic Development Bank–backed agricultural development project for Yobe State. He stressed that both loans are affordable and targeted at productive sectors.
Edun added that President Tinubu commended cabinet members for their commitment to the Renewed Hope Agenda, noting Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.89 per cent, with improvements in agriculture and industry. The President, however, insisted growth must accelerate towards his 7 per cent target to reduce poverty.
