FG’s 2026 N68.32 Trillion Budget Ambitious But… – BudgIT

Civic technology organisation, BudgIT, has described the Federal Government’s 2026 budget as ambitious but warned that the country’s growing reliance on borrowing and persistent revenue challenges could further weaken its fiscal position.

In a statement by its Country Director, Vahyala Kwaga, on Monday, the organisation said the N68.32 trillion budget approved for 2026 represents the largest fiscal plan in Nigeria’s history but lacks the revenue capacity required for effective implementation.

BudgIT noted that the budget was initially presented at N58.47 trillion before it was increased by N9.09 trillion following a request by President Bola Tinubu and subsequent approval by the Senate.

According to the organisation, projected revenue for the year stands at N36.87 trillion, leaving a fiscal deficit of N31.45 trillion, equivalent to 6.41 per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which exceeds the 3 per cent threshold prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

It observed that only about 53.9 per cent of the budget can be financed through expected revenues, while the remaining 46.1 per cent will depend on loans and borrowing.

BudgIT said the development points to a deepening structural imbalance in the country’s public finance system despite repeated concerns raised by fiscal observers.

The organisation also highlighted longstanding concerns over budget implementation, arguing that weak revenue performance and inadequate transparency continue to undermine public confidence in governance.

It stressed the need for timely disclosure of budget implementation reports, noting that approved budgets often fail to translate into measurable outcomes because fund releases remain opaque and difficult to track.

On expenditure, BudgIT acknowledged that the budget reflects a strong expansionary stance, with capital expenditure projected at N32.28 trillion, representing 47.13 per cent of total spending and signalling government’s intention to invest in infrastructure and economic growth.

However, it warned that debt obligations continue to place significant pressure on public finances.

According to the organisation, debt servicing is projected at N15.8 trillion, accounting for about 23 per cent of total expenditure and nearly 45 per cent of anticipated revenue.

BudgIT further expressed concern over what it described as a mismatch between government spending and development priorities.

While security received N6.98 trillion, representing 10.21 per cent of the budget, the organisation noted that allocations to health and education remained inadequate.

It said the health sector received only 5.2 per cent of the budget, far below the 15 per cent target set under the Abuja Declaration, while education received about 4 per cent, which it said falls short of global benchmarks.

The organisation argued that the funding gaps have continued to affect service delivery, citing the heavy dependence on out-of-pocket healthcare spending and the challenge of more than 18 million out-of-school children across the country.

Commenting on the budget, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Engr. Adejoke Akinbode, said the fiscal plan reflects the government’s attempt to pursue growth objectives while grappling with longstanding structural challenges.

“The numbers point to an unambiguous conclusion: Nigeria’s challenge is not just revenue generation, but revenue realism, expenditure discipline, sound debt management and institutional credibility. Without addressing these foundational issues, the current trajectory risks exacerbating fiscal vulnerability, limiting economic growth and worsening social outcomes.

“The country is approaching an election year, and there are concerns that the budget may bear characteristics of a politically motivated, pre-election spending framework designed to maximise short-term visibility rather than long-term national value,” she said.

BudgIT called on the Federal Government to enforce strict compliance with budgetary provisions, eliminate extra-budgetary spending and off-book expenditures, and prioritise projects capable of driving productivity, improving service delivery and supporting sustainable economic growth.

The organisation maintained that stronger fiscal discipline, realistic revenue projections and greater transparency would be critical to ensuring the successful implementation of the 2026 budget.