Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel has eased markedly over the past two years, with official data showing a steep fall in the country’s foreign exchange outlay on refined petroleum products.

Figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments reports indicate that fuel import spending dropped from $14.58 billion in the first nine months of 2023 to $6.71 billion in the same period of 2025 , a reduction of about 54 per cent.

The decline was gradual at first, falling to $11.38 billion in January–September 2024, before accelerating sharply in 2025.

A review of the CBN’s 2023 and 2024 full-year data alongside its third-quarter 2025 figures shows a steady year-on-year contraction in the fuel import bill. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, spending fell by $3.2 billion, or nearly 22 per cent.

The following year saw an even bigger drop of $4.67 billion, representing a 41 per cent fall within nine months.

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In total, Nigeria spent $7.87 billion less on imported petrol, diesel and other refined products in the first three quarters of 2025 than it did over the same period two years earlier, significantly easing pressure on the country’s foreign reserves.

Analysts say the trend reflects the combined impact of policy reforms and increased domestic supply. The removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 led to higher pump prices, which in turn curbed consumption and reduced demand driven by smuggling and price arbitrage. At the same time, tighter foreign exchange controls by the central bank helped limit speculative demand for dollars linked to fuel imports.

The gradual ramp-up of local refining capacity has also played a role. New and rehabilitated refineries, including the large-scale Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos, have begun supplying more products to the domestic market, forcing import-dependent marketers to cut volumes as competition intensifies.

However, the CBN data also shows that Nigeria is still far from fuel self-sufficiency. Even with the sharp decline, importers spent $6.71 billion on refined products in the first nine months of 2025, highlighting the continued gaps in local production and distribution.

The downward trend suggests progress in reducing one of the country’s biggest drains on foreign exchange.