The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has declared that Nigeria has emerged from a period of acute economic crisis, projecting GDP growth of 5.5 per cent in 2026 and warning that the next 18 months will be critical to preventing policy reversal.
The projection was unveiled at the launch of the NESG’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled “Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria.” The group also forecast foreign reserves rising to $52 billion, alongside inflation easing to about 16 per cent in 2026.
Opening the summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf, said Nigeria had just come through one of the most disruptive adjustment periods in its recent economic history.
“Economic transformation is not just an event; it is a sequenced and perpetual process,” Yusuf said. He acknowledged that recent reforms had been painful but necessary, describing them as the stabilisation phase of the reform journey.
However, he cautioned that stabilisation alone does not guarantee prosperity. “Growth remains modest and uneven, driven by a narrow set of sectors with weak transmission to employment and household incomes,” he noted.
Yusuf said the key task ahead was to consolidate existing gains and convert them into sustainable and inclusive growth, warning that skipping reform phases could lead to policy inconsistency and reform fatigue.
Presenting the technical outlook, NESG Chief Economist, Dr Olusegun Omisakin, said Nigeria was no longer in a crisis phase but now had an opportunity to optimise stabilisation gains.
“This year, we are projecting 5.5 per cent GDP growth, inflation of around 16 per cent, and reserves rising to 52 billion US dollars,” Omisakin said. He added that long-term inflation targeting should aim for single digits by 2029.
He identified a growth gap, noting that while the economy currently grows at about 3.8 per cent, sustainable national progress requires growth of between 5.5 and 6 per cent.
A major highlight of the report was a warning about a “critical 18-month window” after stabilisation reforms, citing experiences from countries such as Ghana and Brazil.
“Most countries become satisfied with stabilisation and relax. After 18 months of inconsistent consolidation, the economy reverses,” Omisakin warned, adding that failure to sustain reforms could push Nigeria back to growth levels of 2 to 3 per cent.
He stressed the need to shift focus to productive sectors, noting that services currently account for about 60 per cent of GDP, which is insufficient for long-term transformation.
“We need to strengthen structural transformation by identifying the role of agriculture and manufacturing. If we manage consolidation well, we can grow manufacturing by 6 to 8 per cent, especially if it is strongly linked with agriculture,” he said.
Omisakin urged the private sector to hold government accountable for reforms and called on the government to implement the consolidation agenda with discipline and transparency.
“Nigeria has turned the corner. Now we must sustain the momentum,” he concluded.
