The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has unveiled its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), warning that the country will experience fluctuating rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells, a potentially severe August Break in some regions, and generally warmer temperatures.
The forecast was presented during a stakeholder engagement held yesterday at the NAF Conference Centre in Abuja. The event brought together policymakers, government officials, farmers, aviation operators, disaster managers, development partners, private sector representatives, and members of the media.
Speaking at the event, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, CON, described the SCP as a key national tool that translates climate science into actionable information for planning across sectors.
Keyamo said climate variability and climate change continue to affect aviation safety, food security, infrastructure development and national planning, stressing the need for timely and accurate weather information.
He reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to strengthening NiMet as a centre of excellence in weather and climate services and highlighted Nigeria’s more than 140-year history of meteorological observation.
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He also praised NiMet for its support to various sectors, including aviation, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, water resources management, health, energy and transportation.
Keyamo further cautioned Nigerians against interpreting early rains observed in parts of southern Nigeria as the official onset of the rainy season, advising farmers and rainfall-dependent users to rely on NiMet’s official onset dates.
NiMet’s 2026 forecast predicts:
Early rainfall onset in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba States.
Late onset expected in Borno State.
Earlier-than-normal rainfall cessation in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States.
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Delayed end of season projected for Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States.
Longer rainy season forecast for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba States.
Shorter rainy season expected in parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States.
NiMet also projected normal annual rainfall across most of the country, with above-normal rainfall expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom and the Federal Capital Territory. Below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States.
The agency warned of prolonged dry spells exceeding 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States. It also forecast dry spells of up to 21 days during June, July and August across several northern and central states.
NiMet further stated that the Little Dry Season (August Break) is likely to begin in late July and may be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than the long-term average across most regions during January, February, March and May 2026.
NiMet Director-General and CEO, Prof. Charles Anosike, said the agency remains committed to providing authoritative, science-based climate information to support national planning.
Prof. Anosike disclosed that NiMet is adopting emerging technologies, including integrating artificial intelligence into forecasting operations, to improve accuracy and service delivery.
He also called for stronger partnerships with state governments and stakeholders to “downscale the SCP” to farmers and local communities for better preparedness.
The release of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction reinforces Nigeria’s commitment to science-based planning and highlights NiMet’s role as the nation’s trusted provider of weather and climate services.
