The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate as it enters a renewed phase of monetary easing aimed at boosting domestic productivity.

Analysts’ consensus on Monday indicated that the apex bank could, at the end of its two-day meeting beginning today, reduce the benchmark rate by at least 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent.

The decision will be taken by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the highest policy-making organ of the apex bank, with interest rates expected to dominate discussions.

The CBN Governor-led MPC traditionally sets monetary policies and benchmarks that shape the direction of the financial services sector and the broader economy.

At its last meeting in November 2025, the MPC retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent, halting an easing trend that began with a cut from 27.50 per cent in September 2025.

Economic intelligence reports and think tanks that had previously tracked the apex bank’s position said the MPC could resume its easing stance, citing improvements in the macroeconomic environment.

Analysts pointed to the continuing decline in inflation, rising external reserves, relative stability of the naira, improved corporate outlook and a stronger fiscal position as factors supporting a gradual rate reduction.

They also referenced a recent Executive Order signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu mandating direct remittance of oil and gas revenues to the Federation Account, noting that the move had strengthened government finances and reduced vulnerabilities that previously concerned the apex bank.

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa said the ongoing disinflation trend had increased the likelihood of a rate cut.

Inflation eased to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Food inflation declined by 195 basis points from 10.84 per cent to 8.90 per cent, while core inflation — all items less farm produce and energy — fell by 91 basis points from 18.63 per cent to 17.72 per cent.

Afrinvest also cited improved capital importation data.

Third quarter 2025 figures showed capital inflows rose to $6 billion, representing a 380 per cent increase compared to the corresponding period in 2024.

This marked the strongest quarterly inflow since $6.1 billion recorded in the second quarter of 2019. Cumulatively, inflows for the nine-month period ended September 2025 reached $16.8 billion, the highest since $20.2 billion in the comparable period of 2019.